How a lubricants distributor plans orders 80 days ahead with Renvel

The problem: ordering blind, 80 days ahead

From order to warehouse takes 75 to 80 days. Pricing, prepayment, a month of making, a month of shipping. Goods for January must be ordered in early October.

But when they order, there is no sales plan for three months ahead. So they order blind, and cash gets frozen in stock.

The plan lived in a large Excel rolling forecast. Sales, supply and marketing filled it in by hand.

And the world doesn't hold still. Shipping routes can close, and lead times change.

What we set up: a pilot that forecasts and drafts the order

A forecast: a 6-month rolling forecast built from sales history, cleaned of past promotions.

Order quantities: worked out with the 80-day lead time, the minimum order and 15 days of safety stock.

A daily "Today" screen with the few decisions that matter. For example:

• "Move 120 units from one warehouse to another."
• "Order 108 units, arriving 22 Feb. Covers 30 days plus 15 days of safety stock."

Purchase orders: approve, email the supplier in one click, then mark the goods received.

A person approves every order. The agent does the math. The buyer makes the call.

Results: strong logic, too complex a screen

This is a pilot. Here's the honest feedback.

On 3 Nov the team told us the logic is strong. But the screen is too complex. They want it like a weather forecast. See it, get it, act.

They're right. So we split it into blocks. We start with sales, and the screen is being simplified now.

We'll update this page as the pilot moves on.